Oh, what a difference 53 weeks makes.
Back in 2021, when activity in the hobby was at an all-time high, there was a quarterback that I really liked. After stepping back into card collecting in late 2020 and getting a year’s worth of education from collector friends, blogs, and endless content on social media (Twitter back when it was called Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube were my go-tos), I decided it was time to acquire my very first PSA 10.
The quarterback I liked the most was Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers. He wasn’t the first quarterback drafted in the 2020 NFL draft, and he wasn’t the second quarterback taken. As the fourth overall pick behind Joe Burrow, Chase Young (the generationally talented defensive lineman on my Commanders), and Tua Tagovailoa.
Chasing Herbert
Justin Herbert was having a great year, and by the middle of October during his second season, Herbert was on his way to a 5000-yard passing, 38-touchdown season. This was going to be my guy. This quarterback was the one I would be willing to invest a good chunk of change to acquire in a PSA 10.
I started my search. I knew there were certain high-end cards that were out of my league. RPAs and numbered cards were even in consideration. I was thinking I could score a base rookie in a PSA 10 with what I was willing to spend. I wanted something on the higher end. Herbert’s Panini Prizm and Select PSA 10s were well out of reach. Panini Absolute is just paper disguised behind some high gloss. Contenders and a Donruss Rated Rookie were in the conversation. But the product line I really liked was Panini Mosaic.
2020 Panini Mosaic Football
Why Mosaic? As I mentioned earlier, 2020 was the year I got back into collecting cards. It was the year I learned what a case break was. It was also the year I learned that flippers were making a small fortune buying and selling cards.
I was late to the table, so without going into too much detail, I became the bag holder for a good number of eBay flippers. I had fat packs and blaster boxes of Absolute, hanger boxes of Prizm, and blasters and megas of Mosaic. I held some, opened some, and sold off the stuff that sold quickly like Prizm and Mosaic. Meanwhile, I was grabbing spots in football box breaks. I couldn’t land a single spot in a Prizm break (snipers everywhere). So I found the break that I could get into at a decent price point was 2020 Panini Mosaic football.
And this is when I fell in love with Mosaic.
Panini Mosaic Box Breaks
I didn’t know it then, but I later learned is that 2020 was the first year Panini Mosaic was released. The cards are pretty special with their vibrant and colorful mosaic-like patterns and shiny “Prizm technology” incorporated into the set, which adds a layer of refractor-style shine to the cards, enhancing their visual appeal, but not as gaudy as Prizm and Select (in this collector’s opinion).
I was able to buy into breaks of the Washington Football Team (now Commanders) and land some Chase Young and Antonio Gibson rookies. I could get the Los Angeles Rams (Van Jefferson rookies), Tennessee Titans (no notable rookies but Derrick Henry is one of my favorite players and earned a spot in the PC), Pittsburgh Steelers (Chase Claypool), and Cleveland Browns (not a single rookie in the checklist but I could get them cheap). What I didn’t have a prayer of landing were the Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, or the Miami Dolphins. The Minnesota Vikings were a tough buy as well.
But I was able to watch breaks on YouTube or Instagram or Facebook and watch as winners of those teams hit a big Burrow, Tua, or Herbert or crash and burn in a high-ticket hobby box break. I checked out some Prizm and Select breaks on YouTube and for whatever reason those products seemed foreign to me.
Mosaic was my product, and I was sticking with it.
Related: All Cards Must Ship – The Box Breaking Policy That Does Not Exist
2020 Panini Mosaic #204 Justin Herbert PSA 10 Rookie Card
So when it came time to purchase my first card in a PSA 10, I knew I wanted it to be Justin Herbert, and I decided to chase the 2020 Panini Mosaic #204 base card.
I decided my budget would be $200.
I checked eBay, and the card was going for well over $200 for both auction listings and Buy It Now. I saw Buy It Now pricing for the card in a PSA 10 going for $400-$500. Auctions were landing at around $225 plus shipping and taxes.
I turned to StockX because I had sold some 2020 Mosaic hanger boxes for a little profit there, but I didn’t do any better. I finally found a Buy It Now for $250 that includes an “or Best Offer” tag. I made some offers — $175, which was rejected. I tried $185, and that was rejected. I offered $200. Alas, rejected.
I waited a couple of weeks and kept an eye on the price. I added a bunch of auctions to my watchlist. I kept a close eye as the clock wound down. Everything was going for $200 or better.
I saw a Buy It Now pop up at $199.99. So I pulled the trigger. All in, with shipping costs and taxes, I paid $222.94.
That was on October 16, 2021. At the height of the football season. At the height of the card market.
Card Market Cooldown
Fast forward exactly 53 weeks. I decided I wanted to own all of the big quarterbacks from the 2020 Panini Mosaic set in a PSA 10. My first search? Joe Burrow.
It’s now November 23. Burrow is 10 months out from his first Super Bowl appearance and gunning for his second. Having narrowly lost the Super Bowl to the Los Angeles Rams 23-20 in one of the best NFL titles in recent history, Joe Burrow’s overall card value was slipping, but it wasn’t because Burrow lost the big game months before and it wasn’t because he got injured or was throwing dozens of interceptions.
The card market was pulling back. The big winners in 2020 and 2021 got out at the right time, and the buyers that sunk small fortunes into cards were licking their wounds. Cards like the Justin Herbert #204 that I bought on eBay for $199.99 plus shipping and tax were suddenly available for $45.
I won the 2020 Panini Mosaic #201 Joe Burrow in a PSA 10 at auction on eBay for $41 plus shipping and taxes. On November 23, 2022, I paid $49.40 for that card. Arguably the higher regarded player of the two quarterbacks, acquired at a fraction of the cost thanks to an icy cooldown in the card market.
Taking Stock
Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow are arguably the two best quarterbacks to come out of the 2020 draft, though Tua and Jalen Hurts might have something to say about that. Ultimately, time will tell, and it might turn out that Jordan Love outshines them all.
We’ll see about that.
So do I feel like a total clown for overpaying for my 2020 Panini Mosaic #204 Justin Herbert in a PSA 10? Not at all. I wanted the card, and at the time I believe I got the best deal on that card. Had I known where the card market was going, I absolutely would have waited. But there was always a risk of the market continuing to rise, and I didn’t want to end up paying (or overpaying) double what I got it for.
When collecting big ticket cards for young players, there’s always the gamble that the player may fizzle out. But there is always the chance you can double down on the next Tom Brady. Take stock of what you have, be grateful when you snipe a card you want at a bargain, and show a little dignity when you end up holding the bag on a deal.
I fully admit I overpaid for that Herbert, but I wasn’t looking to flip the card for profit and it was worth it to me to pick it up for the price I paid at the time. It was my first-ever card in a PSA 10 holder, and it’s going to stay in my PC for a long, long time.
Got a similar tale of two cards you’d like to share with others? Post a comment or send me a message!